The fall of the Pharaoh raises the question whether the Middle East tumult will subside, or if this is the beginning of an avalanche not seen since Eastern Europe in 1989. While it is easy to get carried away, regime change in Tunis and Cairo occurred because the men with the guns did not act against the protesters. As Iran showed a couple of years back, unfortunately that is not always true. When the generals obey their masters and when the grunts obey the generals, democratic hopes come to a bloody end.
It is also still not clear whether Tunis and Cairo were soft coups, where the public face of the regime changed but little else did. However, some local despots do need to be more scared than others. On cue the days of rage have commenced in three of the most vulnerable autocracies in the middle east.
The protests in all three countries already highlight one huge difference with Tunisia and Egypt. These autocracies are willing to spill blood. The men with guns and batons will have to refuse to take orders for these tyrants to fall or give way. The list above is also not exhaustive. Yemen, Jordan, Sudan and to a lesser extent Syria (where you have to frankly be foolhardy to publicly protest) have faced protests. Then there is the longest ruling autocrat in the region who has seen his fellow dictators on either side of his country fall. The recent cables leaked by Wikileaks revel how the 41 year regime of Muammar Gadaffi has been tarnished by his licentious progeny. Even Libya may be facing the unthinkable, public protests.
It is very likely that no more dominoes will fall this go around, but the yearnings for freedom and respect on the Arab street will be harder to bottle up again. And if one can dream, if Egypt actually manages to create a constitutional democracy the clock will start running out for the remaining autocracies in the region. The 1990s saw the demise of assorted military juntas in Latin America. Even though the Chavezs and Ortegas are threatening democracy in the region, by and large military rule is passe in the region. Lets hope this decade sees similar change from the Maghreb to the Fertile Crescent, and beyond.
As a final note, do notice how quiet the murderous thugs of Al-Qaeda have been at the sight of the Pharaoh being toppled without suicide bombers.