Posted on 29-05-2014
Filed Under (Foreign Policy) by Rashtrakut

It is hard to overemphasize how the promise of the Arab Spring has turned into the depressing of an Arab Winter.  Other than Tunisia, the hopes of democratization in the region have fallen by the wayside.  Libya an artificial welding together of three Ottoman tribal vilayets under a flag has lapsed into chaos.  Yemen is a failed state rapidly running out of water.  Saudi Arabia has crushed the democracy movement in Bahrain (because it was Shiite).  At the same time it has projected itself as the patron of the Sunni rebels against the Alawite Baath regime in Syria.  Syria is in the midst of a brutal civil war and a rapid exodus of population.

And then there is Egypt, the most populous country in the Arab world which was once its cultural heart.  Hosni Mubarak, the deposed Pharoah President, was sentenced to jail for embezzlement last week along with his sons.  In the aftermath of Mubarak’s fall, Egypt actually had a free and fair election.  Unfortunately the Muslim Brotherhood which won the elections did not understand, that successful democracy requires the ability to respect institutions.  Mohamed Morsi showed some autocratic tendencies that aroused the ire of the secular portions of the country.  However, he was still the freely and fairly elected leader of Egypt.  Morsi’s incompetence paved the way for the thugs who backed the Mubarak regime to launch a coup.

For some reason, the corrupt, brutal and inefficient Egyptian Army is still popular in Egypt.  The Egyptian Army has not engaged in massacres like the Baath regimes of Syria and Egypt – but it is every bit as ruthless.  The fall of Morsi was followed by a ban on the Muslim Brotherhood and the brutal suppression of their street protests.  The Muslim Brotherhood is not a supporter of democracy.  However, they are quick to note that they won a democratic election and it was stolen from them by force.  The result will be the inevitable radicalization of its hard core supporters who see no reason to engage within the parameters of the Egyptian constitution.  For now, the Brotherhood is on the run.

Field Marshal Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi the head of the Egyptian army then anointed himself as the new man to save Egypt.  Spooked by the Muslim Brotherhood, much of Egypt’s secular element has allowed itself to being co-opted by the elements that used to support Hosni Mubarak – the very elements that had brought protesting mobs into Tahrir Square.

The election of el-Sissi was a foregone conclusion.  He faced no real rivals and the government was portraying him as Egypt’s only savior for the last 10 months.  There of course has been no real substance as to how the savior will work his miracles.

The result was the expected landslide for el-Sissi.  Yet the anointment turned into a farce.  The government wanted to show a turnout of 80% to demonstrate the deep reservoirs of support for the new Pharaoh.

The turnout ranged from 38-44% well below the 52% turnout in the election that elected Morsi.  The panicked government kept the polls open for two more days in a desperate effort to get more voters before announcing the results.

It did not help that the result was a foregone conclusions or that the Islamists who turned out to elect Morsi largely stayed at home.  The vote also probably reflects a deep ambivalence (his run for the presidency was greeted by a twitter hash tag that translates to “Vote for the Pimp“) about the self-proclaimed savior who has not identified any real program of reform (other than stomping the Brotherhood).  Egypt now faces the real possibility of reversion to the malaise of the Hosni Mubarak era for the sake of “security.”  The current government is essentially old wine in new bottles.

Hosni Mubarak may be headed to jail, but his clone has now ascended as the new Pharaoh.  What a waste.

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