Evan Bayh’s resignation today rocked the political world.  Nobody saw this coming.  Even though Bayh was likely to draw a Republican challenger, he was expected to win re-election.  His departure leaves the Democrats scrambling for a candidate and makes it very likely that the Republicans pick up the Indiana Senate Seat.

Bayh joins a long string of moderates from both parties departing the Senate fed up with the partisan rancor that permeates the body.  Bayh has also been the target of vituperative attacks from the Democratic base which probably contributed to his weariness with the fray.

Bayh was once the rising star of the Democratic Party, particularly the centrist wing.  Always the bridesmaid never the bride, Bayh was seriously considered as a Vice Presidential running mate for the last three Democratic nominees but none of them took the plunge.  A fairly colorless persona and a policy platform designed to leave the base cold likely prevented Al Gore, John Kerry and Barack Obama from making the pick.

Bayh represents the wing of the Democratic Party that appears to have over learned the mistakes of their fathers.  His father Birch Bayh was a liberal hero who lost his Senate seat in the 1980 Republican landslide to Dan Quayle.  His son was clearly determined to never become more liberal than his state, a fact reflected in his policy stances.

In a conservative state like Indiana, running as a moderate is not necessarily a bad thing.  What has soured the liberal base on politicians like Bayh is the fact that the blue-dog wing of the Democratic Party are essentially Rockefeller Republicans without a spine.  Cautious, timid and ever ready to roll over at a sign of Republican opposition, they are hardly the kind of leaders who can excite a base in a national election.  In fact in the face of an aggressive Republican challenge, as Blanche Lincoln of Arkansas will discover in November, the timidity and refusal to take any risks will be a recipe for defeat.

It is worth noting that for all the abuse hurled at Bayh (and his fellow blue dogs) the liberal base of the Democratic Party has not made any serious efforts to run a primary challenger against him (in contrast to the travails of former Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island and the challenge facing Olympia Snowe in Maine).  While his vacillations and cheerful willingness to stick it to the base drove them mad, (so far) many on the left realize that a hard left candidate will not win Indiana (in fact the likely replacements on the Democratic ticket will be a centrist Democratic congressman in Indiana – which will likely cost the Democrats a seat in the House).

My personal feelings on Bayh are ambivalent.  I am not fond of dynastic scions.  Bayh’s success as a tax cutting governor in Indiana in the 1990s was made possible in large part by the economic boom/bubble, more a function of good timing rather than any gifts as an administrator.  The orgy of tax cutting in the states in the 1990s caused a fiscal nightmare after the Internet bubble burst in 2000.  Bayh is a self proclaimed “deficit hawk” who blindly supports increased military spending and reflexively supports unsustainable tax cuts (particularly on folks in his high tax bracket).  For the last 30 years this approach has guaranteed higher deficits.  Then there is the walking conflict of interest in his wife Susan being appointed to an assortment of corporate boards just as her husband entered the Senate.  For a man who claims he misses being in the executive branch, his waffling on the health care bill was excruciating to watch.

Bayh in many ways epitomizes the cozy corporate lobbyist culture that corrupts Washington DC.  So why am I ambivalent about Bayh?  Because his  Republican alternatives in Indiana will be far worse (particularly on social issues) and equally tied to the hip with K Street (the likely Republican nominee former Senator Dan Coats is actually a lobbyist in Washington at present).

After licking his wounds Bayh will probably run for Governor again.  There is speculation that Bayh is preparing for his long promised run for the Presidency.  People who think Bayh will successfully challenge Obama in 2012 are deluding themselves.  2016 will likely be a free for all that could draw in Bayh.  Age will likely take Hillary Clinton and Joe Biden out of the race.  But even though six years is an eternity in politics (in 2004 who saw Barack Obama in the White House 4 years later), I have a hard time seeing Evan Bayh getting the nomination.

The Democratic Party’s future probably belongs to someone like Brian Schweitzer of Montana.

Subscribe to Rashtrakut by Email

The New York magazine has a long excerpt from John Heilemann and Mark Halperin’s book Game Change: Obama and the Clintons, McCain and Palin, and the Race of a Lifetime on the inner workings of John Edwards second attempt to run for president.  See link.

Nobody connected with the campaign comes out looking good.  John Edwards comes off as a narcissistic ego maniac (the ego-monster in the title of the article).  The sainted Elizabeth Edwards comes off as nasty, delusional and unbalanced.  Others have excoriated the staff of the Edwards for not getting it through to the candidate, on how the Rielle Hunter affair would be an albatross that would destroy an Edwards led ticket in the fall.  While the staff presents its side of the story in the article with generous amounts of back biting against the Edwardses, they still do not account for this signal failing.

John Edwards’ political career was truly meteoric.  Within a span of 10 years he blazed to the Vice Presidential nomination and burnt out into well deserved political oblivion.   The emergence of Barack Obama cut off his political positioning as the anti-Hillary candidate.  The Hunter affair was the coup de grace.

On a personal note, I was never a supporter.  Edwards talked a good populist game (which does not endear a candidate to me to begin with) but it was hard not to question the judgment of a candidate who spent a mere 6 years in public office and then apologized for having voted the wrong way (as far as the Democratic base was concerned) on almost every major issue put to vote in his one-term Senate career (bankruptcy reform, the Patriot Act, the Iraq war, assorted free trade agreements, banking reform etc).  Freed of the requirements of running for office in North Carolina he seemed to slither into the populist cloak too easily.

The Democrats lucked out in not having a candidate who would have scuppered a sure thing in the Presidential election.  Assuming he still felt the need to make such an irresponsible Vice Presidential choice, the country also experienced a fortuitous escape from a Vice President Sarah Palin.

Subscribe to Rashtrakut by Email

• Frank Rich on the perils to both parties from last week’s elections.
• In spite of Republican demagogue Michelle Bachmann rbinging a mob to intimidate Congress, the House passes health care reform.
• The Washington Post sounds off on the Virginia political system that promptly renders each new governor into a lame-duck.
• A blueprint for how a conservative Republican can win an election by adopting a centrist mask.

An eventful off year election night.  Republicans take back the Virginia (expected) and New Jersey (closer) governors mansions.  Mayor Bloomberg in New York City has a tougher than expected re-election fight.  And in NY-23 the Democrat Bill Owens won a seat where the Democrats have not represented parts of the district for 159 years.

A few thoughts on this election:

- It is a lousy environment to  be an incumbent.

- Local issues and the economy appear to have dominated and the polling suggests that the voters still approved of Obama but pulled the Republican lever.  But if the economic outlook does not improve next year, all bets are off.

- The Democrats are not impressing voters, but the Republicans are in much worse shape.  Their brand is toxic and even in the Virginia blowout their candidate’s advertisement did not mention his affiliation.  If Democratic approval has declined since inauguration that for Republicans has tanked.

-  While some conservatives may try to spin the Hoffman loss as a victory for “true” Republicans, Newt Gingrich was right.  You cannot create a governing coalition by insulting moderates and independents and catering just to the true believers.  Republicans and the Fox media machine have helped whip up a lot of inchoate nihilistic rage, but they have yet to present a reality based governing platform.  For now the few remaining moderates like Charlie Christ, Kay Bailey Hutchinson and Mark Kirk will be the next targets for the right and the Democrats  will sit on the sideline and enjoy the sight of Republicans tearing each other down.